CNN Student News January 28, 2015 video 約自1分10秒處開始
CNN Student News January 28, 2015 Why Forecasts Can Be Wrong.mp3
CNN Student News January 28, 2015 Why Forecasts Can Be Wrong.doc
Why is the weather so hard to predict?
We have computer models that literally try
to forecast what`s going to happen,
and then we believe those models . If the models are wrong, we are wrong.
and then we believe those models . If the models are wrong, we are wrong.
Then problem with the models are that you can`t put all the data in ,
or if you had everything in the world into the model,
it would take you four days to make a one day forecast .
or if you had everything in the world into the model,
it would take you four days to make a one day forecast .
The parameters 參數 of a weather model are vast . We
have temperature at the ground,
we have temperatures in the mid-level, temperatures aloft, 高空
how big the jet stream is, what the humidity is, what the wind direction is,
what the water temperatures are, where the mountains are,
where the low pressure is, where the high pressure is.
All of those factors fit in. And so what we have is a model that says ,
if this today, then this tomorrow. And then if this tomorrow, then this the next day,
and if the first day is wrong, all the way down the model’s wrong.
we have temperatures in the mid-level, temperatures aloft, 高空
how big the jet stream is, what the humidity is, what the wind direction is,
what the water temperatures are, where the mountains are,
where the low pressure is, where the high pressure is.
All of those factors fit in. And so what we have is a model that says ,
if this today, then this tomorrow. And then if this tomorrow, then this the next day,
and if the first day is wrong, all the way down the model’s wrong.
As a meteorologist, 氣象學者 whether you are on TV, working for the hurricane center, you are
out there,
trying to protect people, trying to protect livelihood , trying to protect their lives .
trying to protect people, trying to protect livelihood , trying to protect their lives .
We are the king of worst case scenario. That`s what my wife calls me.
Don`t you ever think about the best case scenario ?
No, because you
can`t prepare for the best case scenario, you could only prepare for the worst.
If you’re prepared for the worst, and it
doesn`t happen, you’re safe.
If you’re prepared for the worst, and it does happen, you are safe.
If you’re prepared for the worst, and it does happen, you are safe.
If you’re prepared for the best case and the worst case happens , you’re in trouble .
We have computer models that literally try to forecast what`s going to happen,
and then we believe those models . If the models are wrong, we are wrong.
and then we believe those models . If the models are wrong, we are wrong.
Then problem with the
models are that you can`t put all the data in ,
or if you had everything in the world into the model,
it would take you four days to make a one day forecast .
or if you had everything in the world into the model,
it would take you four days to make a one day forecast .
The parameters 參數 of a weather model are vast . We have temperature
at the ground,
we have temperatures in the mid-level, temperatures aloft, 高空
how big the jet stream is, what the humidity is, what the wind direction is,
what the water temperatures are, where the mountains are,
where the low pressure is, where the high pressure is.
All of those factors fit in. And so what we have is a model that says ,
if this today, then this tomorrow. And then if this tomorrow, then this the next day,
and if the first day is wrong, all the way down the model’s wrong.
we have temperatures in the mid-level, temperatures aloft, 高空
how big the jet stream is, what the humidity is, what the wind direction is,
what the water temperatures are, where the mountains are,
where the low pressure is, where the high pressure is.
All of those factors fit in. And so what we have is a model that says ,
if this today, then this tomorrow. And then if this tomorrow, then this the next day,
and if the first day is wrong, all the way down the model’s wrong.
As a meteorologist, 氣象學者 whether
you are on TV, working for the hurricane center, you are out there,
trying to protect people, trying to protect livelihood , trying to protect their lives .
trying to protect people, trying to protect livelihood , trying to protect their lives .
We are the king of
worst case
scenario. 可能出現的最壞情況 That`s what my wife calls me.
Don`t you ever think about the best case scenario ?
No, because you can`t prepare for the best case scenario, you could only prepare for the worst.
If you’re prepared for the worst, and it doesn`t happen,
you’re safe.
If you’re prepared for the worst, and it does happen, you are safe.
If you’re prepared for the worst, and it does happen, you are safe.
If you’re prepared for the best case and the worst case happens ,
you’re in
trouble .
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